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PM Ishiba: Be careful what you wish
Newly-appointed Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has a big security plan for Asia. He has been supporting the establishment of the so-called “Asian Nato.” He hopes this new security mechanism will help counter China's rise and improve regional stability.
When he was a defense minister, he posited that the absence of a collective self-defense system like Nato in Asia means that wars are likely to break out. He thought that such a framework could prevent war in the region.
His idea has been supported by European countries as it echoes the same thinking of the Western alliance. However, Asean and the rest of Asia might not share his opinion. NATO has now become a war machine, which will have negative long-term repercussions for its economy and standard of living.
For nearly six decades, the Asean region has been peaceful and has escaped a major war because it has not harbored ill-felling among the nations based on ideology and norms.
After World War II and Japan’s military adventurism, the region realized that the only way to prevent war is to avoid new military alliances that would polarize the region. Asean members prefer cooperative partnerships in security matters, which have now encompassed all cross-pillars of economic and social/culture.
That helps explain why Asean came up with the Asean Outlook for Indo-Pacific when the US pronounced the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2017. Later, Washington’s alliances and friends followed suit releasing their Ino-Pacific strategies which reflected the US strategic thinking.
In more ways than one, Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy is unique as it contains substantial elements that align with the AOIP. It helps explain why Japan was the first country to issue the Joint Statement on Cooperation on AOIP in 2020
With the myriad of current cooperative frameworks in the region, it is difficult to envisage any major power would be able to exercise hegemon.
Obviously, only a hegemonic power can instigate conflicts and wars as we have witnessed in Europe. Within Southeast Asia, it is clear that no country would welcome such an idea.
Japan has a good reputation in the region as a peace-loving country and a reliable regional partner, which has provided developmental assistance for decades, which has jointly advanced economic progress and the well-being of the people in Southeast Asia.
Japan also already has extensive cooperation with Asean under the AOIP activities covering the whole gamut of maritime cooperation, connectivity, sustainability and economic affairs.
Ishiba should focus on strengthening economic cooperation with Asean as well as the broader Asean plus three framework.
He has the opportunity to show his vision as the Asean-related summits will take place from 8-11 October in Vientiane. At least 21 world leaders will be there to attend approximately two dozen summits between Asean and dialogue partners.
What Ishiba needs to do is quickly to assure his new administration's continued support of Asean centrality and Asean-led mechanisms. Therefore, the idea of Asian Nato would be out of place if he brings out at the Vientiane summit.
Asean leaders are very anxious of the uncertain future resulting from the US presidential election, which will impact on all countries including Japan and Asean.
Deep down, Asean wants to see Japan become more independent in its diplomatic trajectory while supporting a strong US regional presence.
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